What Changed
For over a decade, the H-1B cap lottery was purely random. Every registration had the same chance of selection, regardless of salary, experience, or qualifications. The average selection rate hovered around 29.6%.
That system ended on February 27, 2026, when the DHS Final Rule (90 FR 60864, published December 29, 2025) took effect. Starting with FY2027, H-1B lottery selection is wage-weighted. Higher-paid positions get more entries in the selection pool, giving them better odds.
The first wage-weighted lottery was conducted during the FY2027 cap season (March 2026). This is now the permanent system for all future H-1B cap seasons.
How the Weighted System Works
Under the new system, each H-1B registration receives a number of entries based on the offered salary's OEWS (Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics) wage level:
| Wage Level | Description | Entries | Relative Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level I | Entry-level, limited judgment, close supervision | 1 | 1x (baseline) |
| Level II | Qualified, moderate complexity, general supervision | 2 | 2x |
| Level III | Experienced, specialized knowledge, limited supervision | 3 | 3x |
| Level IV | Fully competent, exercises full range of judgment | 4 | 4x |
Important: This is NOT a strict ranking where Level IV is selected first and Level I last. It is a weighted random draw. Every registration has a chance of selection. Level I can still be selected. The entries simply determine how many "tickets" you have in the draw.
Analogy: Think of it like a raffle. Level IV gets 4 raffle tickets, Level I gets 1. More tickets means better odds, but everyone who has a ticket has a chance to win.
How Your Wage Level Is Determined
Your wage level is based on your offered salary relative to OEWS data for your specific occupation (SOC code) and work location. The employer must select the highest OEWS wage level that the offered salary equals or exceeds.
Key Points
- Wage levels vary dramatically by occupation and location. A $120,000 salary might be Level III for a position in Ohio but Level I for the same job in San Francisco.
- The wage level on the registration is based on offered salary, not the LCA wage level. These can differ.
- If there are multiple worksites, the employer uses the lowest corresponding wage level among all locations.
- If multiple employers register the same beneficiary, USCIS uses the lowest wage level among all registrations for that person.
Estimated Selection Probabilities
DHS published projected selection probabilities based on historical registration patterns. These assume approximately 300,000 registrations with the FY2026 wage level distribution:
| Wage Level | Entries | Estimated Odds | Old Random Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level I | 1 | ~15.3% | 29.6% | -14.3% |
| Level II | 2 | ~30.6% | 29.6% | +1.0% |
| Level III | 3 | ~45.9% | 29.6% | +16.3% |
| Level IV | 4 | ~61.2% | 29.6% | +31.6% |
Note: These are DHS estimates. Actual rates depend on FY2027 registration volume and the distribution of wage levels across registrations, which USCIS has not yet published.
Important: Level I and Level II candidates were selected in the FY2027 lottery. The system reduces their odds but does not eliminate them.
What does this mean for you specifically? Enter your wage level and degree type below to see your estimated selection probability under the new weighted system.
The Master's Cap Advantage
In addition to the 65,000 regular cap, there are 20,000 additional visas reserved for beneficiaries with a Master's degree or higher from an accredited non-profit US institution.
Eligible degree holders get two chances at selection:
- First draw: Entered in the Master's cap pool (20,000 visas)
- Second draw: If not selected in the Master's pool, automatically entered in the regular cap pool (65,000 visas)
This dual-draw advantage is separate from the wage weighting. You get both the dual draw AND your wage-level entries in each draw.
Eligibility Requirements
- Any field qualifies. MBA, MFA, MA, MS, PhD, JD, MD are all eligible.
- Must be from an accredited, public or non-profit US institution.
- For-profit school degrees do NOT qualify for the Master's cap (but do qualify for the regular cap).
- Foreign degrees do NOT qualify for the Master's cap.
The $100,000 Fee
Presidential Proclamation 10973 (September 19, 2025) imposed a $100,000 supplemental registration fee on certain H-1B registrations.
This fee is expected to significantly reduce overseas registrations, which historically made up a large portion of the pool. Fewer total registrations means better odds for everyone who does register.
FY2027 Timeline
FY2027 Registration Data
USCIS confirmed the FY2027 cap was met in the initial selection round. No second lottery was needed.
Official FY2027 registration numbers have not yet been released by USCIS. Based on the $100,000 fee impact and industry estimates, total registrations are projected at 200,000 to 250,000, down significantly from previous years:
| Fiscal Year | Unique Beneficiaries | Selected | Selection Rate | Rounds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | Not yet released | Not yet released | TBD | 1 |
| FY2026 | 336,153 | 118,660 | 35.3% | 1 |
| FY2025 | ~442,000 | ~135,000 | ~29% | 1 |
| FY2024 | ~470,000 | ~188,000 | ~25% | 3 |
Strategies to Improve Your Odds
1. Negotiate Your Salary
Even a small increase can push you to the next wage level. The difference between Level I and Level II doubles your entries. Use the Prevailing Wage Lookup to see exact thresholds for your occupation and location.
2. Verify Your SOC Code
Ensure the correct occupation code is used on your registration. An incorrect SOC code could place you at a different wage level than your salary warrants. Different SOC codes have different wage thresholds for the same metro area.
3. Consider Location
Wage levels vary by metro area. The same salary could be Level II in a high-cost city but Level III in a lower-cost area. If your employer has offices in multiple locations, the work location assignment matters.
4. US Master's Degree
A US Master's from an accredited non-profit institution qualifies you for the 20,000 advanced degree pool, giving you two chances at selection. If you are early in your career, this is one of the most impactful investments you can make.
5. Being in the US Matters
The $100,000 consular processing fee means being already in the US (on OPT, CPT, or another status) is a significant financial advantage. If you are a student considering your options, completing your degree in the US provides a meaningful advantage.
Use the H-1B Lottery Calculator above to check your wage level and estimate your odds.
If You're Not Selected
If your registration is not selected, it remains in "Submitted" status and may be eligible for a second lottery if the cap is not met from initial filings. For FY2027, USCIS confirmed the cap was met in the initial round, making a second lottery unlikely.
Alternative Visa Paths (No Lottery Required)
- Try again next year (FY2028) with a higher salary or Master's degree
- O-1 visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement
- L-1 visa for intracompany transfers from a foreign office
- Cap-exempt employers including universities, non-profit research organizations, and government research entities
- E-3 visa for Australian citizens (10,500 cap, never exhausted)
- H-1B1 visa for Singapore and Chilean citizens (6,800 combined cap)
- TN visa for Canadian and Mexican professionals under USMCA
Legal Disclaimer
This guide provides general information about the H-1B lottery system and is not legal advice. Immigration laws and regulations are complex and subject to change. Consult a licensed immigration attorney for advice specific to your situation.
Data sourced from DHS Final Rule (90 FR 60864, December 29, 2025), USCIS.gov, and the Federal Register. Probabilities are DHS projections based on historical registration patterns and may not reflect actual FY2027 outcomes.